The third fossil resource that will run out is coal. This source of energy will probably last for the next 100 years. Due to its inefficiency compared to the other fossil resources it is questionable whether this source of energy is really the best alternative to the others.
When moving away from fossil fuels to another traditional energy source – uranium – the calculation is also no reason for optimism. The supply for uranium will not last forever, either. The prediction when uranium will run out is in the middle of the 2030s.
In the end, it does not matter whether one expert publishes a different number as another expert. Fact is that all the traditional energy sources will run out.
The running out of all the traditional energy sources bears great potential for conflicts. These conflicts will not start the moment when those resources will run out; instead they will start much earlier. Since these resources are concentrated in view parts of the world and the consumer (essentially Western industrialized countries) is usually located in a different area as the producer (essentially Third World countries) the competition will become stronger and stronger. Essentially, it is already apparent today, that not only states will compete for those resources but behind those states big multinational companies are playing their part as well.
The result will be the widening of the gap between those that produce and those that consume in respect to the development of the countries in the Third World and the rest. But what is the solution to this problem?
The solution widely accepted today is renewable energy sources. To give this argument more importance this third part of the article will deal with the economic and socio-political aspects of these renewable energy sources.
The case of RES is quite different as the one of traditional non-renewable energy sources. Fossil/traditional energy sources mean the centralization of energy production and consequently also a centralization of power in the hands of a few. On the contrary, renewable energy sources implemented in an ideal form means decentralization of energy production and decentralization of power. Essentially, the consumer and the producer, in the case of renewable energy sources, is the same. Energy production becomes decentralized and local. The competition for securing energy sources becomes unnecessary.
Even though there are still arguments that question the availability of renewable energy sources, the exact opposite is true. It has been widely proved by many scholars that renewable energies are available in such huge quantities to mankind that the energy demand can be covered more than once. But what is the advantage of decentralization – economically and political?
With the decentralization of energy production different regions become energetically autarkic – independent. By gaining this form of independence, different states and regions are able to get independent in a positive way form from big multinational companies and other states.
“You see, we should make use of the forces of nature and should obtain all our power in this way. Sunshine is a form of energy, wind and sea currents are manifestations of this energy. Do we make use of them? Oh no! We burn forests and coal, like tenants burning down our front door for heating. We live like wild settlers and not as though these resources belong to us “ -Thomas A. Edison, 1916
The industrial revolution has started around 200 years ago. In order to win the race of industrialization, it became evident, that the securing of resources became crucial. During this period the world stood at two crossroads. Those two roads were in one direction the road called “Renewable Energy (RES)” and in the other direction the road called “Fossil/Traditional Energy”. The first one would have led to a decentralized energy production, the second one to a centralized. Unfortunately the “Fossil/Traditional Energy” road was taken. This road led to an increase in centralization of energy production, consequently to increase of the centralization of resource availability.
This article should serve as an introduction into the field of renewable energy sources and will show that the “RES-road” will eventually be inevitable should humankind wish to survive. In order to support my arguments this article will be divided into three main parts. First, the various forms of renewable energies will be explained at a glance. A more detailed description of those will follow in the other articles belonging to this series of articles. Second, the dilemma of securing the flow of resources will be explained and third the social-political and economic aspect.
RES can be divided up into the following categories: the use of sunlight in its direct form to produce heat (warm water collectors) or electricity (Photovoltaic elements) and the use of wind, which has its origins in the exchange of warm and cold air. The air gets warmed up by the sun. Therefore it can be said that wind power is the indirect use of sunlight. The third form is the use of biomass/biogas. Biomass can also be seen as the indirect use of sunlight since the biomass is fundamentally produced by means of photosynthesis – the synthesis of high energy molecules with sunlight as its driving force. Biomass is the only RE source where the energy is stored naturally without any additional means. The last category of RES is water. Today, hydro power is the widest accepted RES and the equally the most popular. Austria is producing a main proportion of its energy out of hydro power plants. The disadvantage related to this form of energy sources is that hydropower plants with considerable size have a negative impact on the environment.
Since the availability of different RES is dependent on the region, it is necessary to find the most effective combination (mix) of the various forms of RES to obtain maximum output. In the end, it makes no sense to use one single RES – especially when thinking of the enormous possibilities available in the various fields of renewable energy sources. Unless fossil energy sources and other traditional energy sources, like nuclear energy, renewable energy sources are inexhaustible.
Eventually, fossil energy sources and other traditional forms of energy sources have become a major factor in the political, social and economic life of states. Depending on the level of industrial development the securing of energy sources has become one of the most important goals of these particular states.
The origins of fossil energy sources lie in the early stages of evolution. Then, Plants, like those today, bound carbon dioxide (CO2) by means of photosynthesis and produced oxygen as a by-product. This process was essential within the evolutionary process in order to bind the, for human beings and other aerobic organisms, toxic gas of CO2 and to provide those aerobic organisms with an oxygen atmosphere. Chemical processes, under pressure, transformed these plants, after they died, over an extended period into the commonly known fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas. By burning these fossil fuels the reverse reaction of this CO2 binding process of plants of million years ago takes place. The CO2 gets released again and the human beings essential oxygen gets used up. The consequences are known – global warming, greenhouse effect etc. This is only one problem related to the burning of fossil fuels.
Since fossil fuels are only limited in their amount, the dependency on fossil fuels will become a risk. The availability of fossil fuels is different within the categories of coal, oil and natural gas. Even the numbers when those sources run out exist in a huge amount. For the different sources the following average numbers are available.
The first fossil fuel that will run out is the most valuable in terms of the need in industrialized countries – oil. With an increasing demand of oil the optimistic expectations when this source of energy will run out is 35 years. Although, there are optimistic views that oil deposits will be discovered in the future and those that are hard to reach today will be exploited, it is fundamentally the case that the major oil deposits have been discovered and are already being exploited. It is also the case that even if those new or hard to reach deposits should be exploited, the costs in general, dangers and risks for the environment (remote areas like the Amazon rainforest and oil fields in Alaska) will be impossible to calculate.
The next fossil source that will run out is natural gas. This source, with an increasing demand, will possibly run out in the year 2040. Since, companies involved in the energy sector are currently running a big campaign to promote
The events during the oil crises with the immense increase of national debt in the case of developing countries should have taught us a lesson. When not learning from this lesson, events like the oil crises will be bring even more suffering. Especially when thinking of the fight for resources in the near future. By becoming independent from traditional energy forms events like the oil crises have no possibilities to concern states, which are energetically independent. With correct implementation of renewable energy sources and their technologies new forms of colonialisation by the West will have no opportunity to grow.
The security political aspect of RES becomes evident when looking at its decentralized nature. Due to the fact of new ways of threats to the sovereignty of a state new ways of defending have to be found. One vulnerable aspect within a state system is its energy production. Energy production that is decentralized becomes less vulnerable to outside attacks than a centralized energy production. Not only is the result of an attack on a centralized energy system a break down of energy supply but other disastrous factors have to be taken into account as well. When thinking of a hydropower plant the destruction of areas below the dam becomes enormous. With nuclear power plant the destruction is not only limited to a certain period of time but the consequences will be evident for years and even decades and centuries due to nuclear radiation.
When looking at the economic advantage of RES it is apparent that they can serve as a new root for economic growth. Since each region or state will use a different mix of renewable energy sources, each region or state will want to have the opportunity to produce this energy mix by itself. The advantages should be clear. The revitalization, development and extension of local industry in various sectors - agricultural sector, metal industry, research etc.
In fact, there are concrete numbers to what extent different RE sources bring economic growth. With the implementation of new laws in Germany regarding RES a boom for PV and solar collectors has been initiated. The result was an increase of investment in research on the one hand and the establishment of new local industry for the production of PV panels and solar collectors. The new laws in Germany have created 70000 new jobs.
In the end, the solar collector industry is currently growing at a rate of 20% per year and the photovoltaic industry at a rate of 40%. Similar to that is the case of wind power plants. Due to governmental support wind power has become rather popular in Denmark with the result that Denmark has become the main producer of wind power plants world wide. Today the cost of electricity produced from windmills has almost reached the price of electricity produced out of nuclear power plants. Last years newly built wind power plants equal the productivity of two large nuclear power plants.
Growth rates in this sector equal 34% world wide and 60% in the United States.
In times, when economic growth is more than uncertain, new forms to promote economic growth need to be found. The ideal solution is to find a sector where economic growth takes place without the destruction of the environment. Traditional energy sources have shown that they are not able to be subjects of clean and sustainable development.
Of course, there are voices that might talk about the high prices of renewable energy sources and its technologies. To a certain extent that is correct when analyzed from a far distance. But when looked at the accuracy of this argument in more detail, they turn out to be myths. On the one hand scholars that believe that fossil and traditional energy sources are cheaper than RES usually analyze, in the case of traditional sources, only one specific part of the so called resource chain. The cost calculations related to the use of traditional energy sources like fossil fuels do not take into considerations factors like the risks that are connected with using those resources. The risks are starting at the point of exploitation, move on to the risks related to the transportation (tanker accidents, oil spills), and end with the burning of fossil fuels and air pollution. On the other hand those scholars are very critical and very correct in analyzing the costs for renewable energy sources. In this case each step is analyzed and the result is, of course, that renewable energy sources are more expensive. This calculation does not even include the amounts of funding distributed in the case of traditional fuels. Fossil fuels, as such, are funded each year with an amount of around 300 Million USD.
Of course, using all those arguments for the implementation of RES might still be not very convincing to a number of people. In the end, though, the implementation of renewable energy sources is not going to happen overnight. With the implementation of renewable energy sources step-by-step the costs will be relatively high at the beginning but will decrease at a high rate eventually. The implementation will start a boom of new research activities. A new competition of who has the most efficient technologies for renewable energies will be initiated. When a complete transformation of the current energy supply system is on its way a new industrial revolution will be the result and this time this industrial revolution can be beneficiary not only for few parts of the world but for the entire world.
In the end, it can be said that fossil and traditional resources for energy production will run out. The conflicts related to the securing of these resources will intensify. The result will be that states will become less and less independent from each other in a negative sense.
The influence of multinational companies will increase with the centralization of energy supply and the result will be that power in the world will be concentrated in the hands of a view.
The logical way is to change the system from its roots. This can only happen with the implementation of a decentralized energy supply system instead of a centralized. A democratic system relies on the decentralization of power. The only known way of supplying energy locally is by means of renewable energy sources. Social/political structures can be improved, the economy will be revitalized and economic growth can be guaranteed.
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