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| Ukrainian Elections - manikin battles , played out in the virtual realm |
 PRINTABLE VERSION |
I don’t think that every thing is under control. Clearly there are factors outside the seemingly set Ukrainian arrangement, the external actors, the outside world, event that can disrupt this vicious seemingly circle. Voters. Economic context is not decisive. There are voters who think in terms of private goods, in terms of their relations with the machine, or persuasion put on them. But there are others who think in terms of collective good, public good, improvement of the political system. This is a more European element that may have a role in the outcome of the elections.
Will change of Ukrainian leadership introduce drastic change?
Current 14% economical boom will inevitably slow down anyway. There is a temptation to say that all parties are the same, but this temptation should be resisted - in this case, because it is myth that has been spread by Russian political technologists. There is a big difference; Yuschenko would make a lot less use of this industry. This is because in his surrounding many oppose to Kremlin, and he has no KGB secret service background. In his surrounding there are many little oligarchs that would like to become large ones.
Is there a possibility of direct power intrusion either before or after elections?
The situation is very fluid, major emphasis is about manipulating sociology and as I said, falsifying the process to ensure results rather than falsifying results. See if it is enough to ensure the victory of Yanukovich, I don't expect outbreaks of violence, people behind Yanukovich would prefer a more law risk victory. But if they can not obtain this? Who knows? Still as Yuschenko seem to be the favorite of the first round, the dynamics of the second round are very different and the outcome is uncertain. Still very hard to forecast how other candidate’s voters might vote in the second round.
Oleksiy Ilizkiy
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Olexi
Ukrainian student, journalist and a planetary citizen. I invite you to take a look at Central's Europe largest state- Ukraine through Olexi-tinted spectacles. Somewhat approaching unbiased subjectivity :)
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