It has been estimated that by the end of the century global temperature will have increased between 1.8 and 4o degrees Celsius and sea level by 0.18 to 0.59 meters. Warming is predicted to be greatest over land, in continental interiors, and at high northern latitudes. Increases in rainfall are forecast in high latitudes whilst decreases are likely in most sub-tropical land regions. It is likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy rainfall events will become more frequent and tropical cyclones more intense.
Climate change is therefore traditionally categorized as an environmental issue. However, it must also be seen as a development issue that is causing people to migrate away from increasingly unbearable environmental conditions.
Whilst affecting all types of migration, rapid onset of climate phenomena are likely to be related more readily to distress migration. Creeping environmental degradation caused by gradual changes in the mean climatic conditions, catastrophic events such as sudden loss of land caused by climate extremes such as storm surges - these are likely to cause people to migrate, thus changing existing patterns of movement for goods and humans.
The impact of climate change on livelihoods is also manifested in a number of direct and indirect ways. These include loss of natural resources and changes in the viability of economic processes due to changes in global markets. Research has show that long-distance migration decreased during drought periods. This is possibly caused by an increase in food prices, forcing people to spend money on basic needs in place of migrating far from home. Short-distance migration increased during the same period as women and children left in search of work to contribute to household incomes. In turn, this strategy reduced the number of persons in a household and thus the amount of food needed.
Whilst rich countries are the culpable for climate change and have contributed most to total global emissions, it is poorer countries that will suffer catastrophic impacts in the long term. The IPCC highlights the following as being particularly vulnerable: Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Africa Mega deltas (particularly in Asia), and the Polar regions.
Richer countries must support the need for the transfer of existing and new adaption technology measures. Moreover, there is the need to create attractive incentives for poor countries to limit their emissions whilst safeguarding their right to development.
Poorer countries can take steps such as banning CFC-producing equipment, and placing high taxes on those who import them. Climate change concerns can be integrated in the school curriculum and disaster risk reduction strategies can be incorporated into the MDG-based national sustainable development plans.
As a young person, I would make a clarion call to all my fellow youth activists to work hard and also raise our voice against any inaction by our world leaders. We must fight for a better world for the generations to come otherwise we will have a big question to answer from posterity.
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